Can we say that each year an open-source alternative replaces the previous year's closed-source SOTA?

I strongly feel this trend towards open-source models. For example, GLM5 or Kimi K2.5 can absolutely replace Anthropic SOTA Sonnet 3.5 from a year ago. I'm excited about this trend, which shows that LLMs will upgrade and depreciate like electronic products in the future, rather than remaining at an expensive premium indefinitely. For example, if this trend continues, perhaps next year we'll be able to host Opus 4.6 or GPT 5.4 at home. I've been following this community, but I haven't had enough hardware to run any meaningful LLMs or do any meaningful work.