Why do people assume AGI leads to UBI instead of dependency?

I think a lot of people make a huge leap in AGI discussions. They say: if AI replaces human labor, then ordinary people lose income, consumer demand falls, and the system will have to respond with UBI. But that does not follow. The real question is not whether some appears. The real question is who holds power by the time is being decided. If AGI comes fast, productive power may concentrate before politics adapts. The actors who control the models, compute, infrastructure, and key institutions could already dominate the economy before the public has time to reorganize.