AI-2027 isn’t useless, but I think it overstates how sturdy its case is

My take on AI-2027 at this point is not “this is slop” or “this is obviously insane.” It’s that the paper feels too sure of itself relative to how fragile some of the underlying assumptions look once you examine them closely. A lot of the persuasive force comes from how smooth and coherent the scenario feels. But once you focus on parameter consistency, chained uncertainty, and sensitivity to modeling choices, the confidence level starts looking harder to justify. I wrote a much longer 50+ page critique/revised forecast on it because I wanted to test that view rigorously.