My picture of the present in AI (11 minute read)

Ryan Greenblatt is the chief scientist at Redwood Research, a research organization with the mission of aligning superhuman AI. This post goes through some of his best guesses for the current situation of AI. The scenario forecast discusses R&D access regulations, engineering capabilities and qualitative abilities, misalignment and misalignment-related properties, cyber, bioweapons, and economic effects. Some of the claims are highly speculative, while others are better grounded.