In Defense of AGI Skepticism

Apologies in advance for the length-- this essay is just an attempt at defending the position that AGI, as understood as an intelligence that can reasonably be substituted for a human in any knowledge work, might be quite a bit further off than some maximalists on this sub like to conjecture. First, just a bit of background: I'm not an expert in the field, but I have enough technical/mathematical background to read papers on AI and I use a frontier model in a technical research role. And that frontier model is really, really, really good.