Before he wrote AI 2027, he predicted the world in 2026. How did he do? (22 minute read)

Daniel Kokotajlo, the founder of the AI Futures Project, wrote an essay called 'What 2026 Looks Like' in August 2021, before the launch of ChatGPT. His predictions turned out to be pretty accurate. This post features an interview with Kokotajlo where he discusses what he got right, what he got wrong, and how we should think about the pace of AI over the next few years. Kokotajlo recently released a report that predicts the next few years of AI development, which culminates in the rise of superhuman agents capable of wresting control from humanity.