Critique my theory: AI related layoffs will manifest in the future as massive consolidation/ M&A, not direct productivity gains

I had a literal shower thought and wanted to get some feedback on the forward looking impacts of AI. I see a lot of posts calling AI a nothing burger, pointing to multiple studies that "most AI projects fail" and "few companies have actually replaced or reduced workers with AI" I think it's probably true that a lot of recent layoffs have not actually been related to AI and companies are just using that as a screen for their layoffs. I think it's likely also true that many companies have found ways to replace or reduce their workforce using AI - they're just not talking about it publically.