Anthropic just published a pretty alarming 2028 AI scenario paper and it's not about AGI safety in the usual sense

Anthropic dropped a new research paper today outlining two possible futures for global AI leadership by 2028, and it reads like a geopolitical briefing than a typical AI safety paper. The core argument: The US currently has a meaningful lead over China in frontier AI, primarily because of compute (chips). American and allied companies (NVIDIA, TSMC, ASML, etc.) built technology China simply can't replicate yet. Export controls have made that gap real. But China's labs have stayed surprisingly close through two workarounds: Chip smuggling + overseas data center access - PRC labs are apparently.