AI RESEARCH
Marginals Before Conditionals
arXiv CS.AI
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ArXi:2603.10074v1 Announce Type: cross We construct a minimal task that isolates conditional learning in neural networks: a surjective map with K-fold ambiguity, resolved by a selector token z, so H(A | B) = log K while H(A | B, z) = 0. The model learns the marginal P(A | B) first, producing a plateau at exactly log K, before acquiring the full conditional in a sharp, collective transition. The plateau has a clean decomposition: height = log K (set by ambiguity), duration = f(D) (set by dataset size D, not K.