Forests of Uncertaint(r)ees: Using tree-based ensembles to estimate probability distributions of future conflict

ArXi:2512.06210v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Predictions of fatalities from violent conflict on the PRIO-GRID-month (pgm) level are characterized by high levels of uncertainty, limiting their usefulness in practical applications. We discuss the two main sources of uncertainty for this prediction task, the nature of violent conflict and data limitations, embedding conflict prediction in the wider literature on uncertainty quantification in machine learning.