Modeling Matches as Language: A Generative Transformer Approach for Counterfactual Player Valuation in Football

ArXi:2603.15212v1 Announce Type: new Evaluating football player transfers is challenging because player actions depend strongly on tactical systems, teammates, and match context. Despite this complexity, recruitment decisions often rely on static statistics and subjective expert judgment, which do not fully account for these contextual factors. This limitation stems largely from the absence of counterfactual simulation mechanisms capable of predicting outcomes in hypothetical scenarios.