Expected Reward Prediction, with Applications to Model Routing

ArXi:2603.20217v1 Announce Type: cross Reward models are a standard tool to score responses from LLMs. Reward models are built to rank responses to a fixed prompt sampled from a single model, for example to choose the best of n sampled responses. In this paper, we study whether scores from response-level reward models lifted to score a model's suitability for a prompt, prior to seeing responses from that model. Specifically, we show that it is straightforward to predict the expected reward that an LLM would earn from the reward model under repeated sampling.