Conformal Risk Control for Safety-Critical Wildfire Evacuation Mapping: A Comparative Study of Tabular, Spatial, and Graph-Based Models

ArXi:2603.22331v1 Announce Type: cross Every wildfire prediction model deployed today shares a dangerous property: none of these methods provides formal guarantees on how much fire spread is missed. Despite extensive work on wildfire spread prediction using deep learning, no prior study has applied distribution-free safety guarantees to this domain, leaving evacuation planners reliant on probability thresholds with no formal assurance.