[P] Best approach for online crowd density prediction from noisy video counts? (no training data)

I have per-frame head counts from P2PNet running on crowd video clips. Counts are stable but noisy (±10%). I need to predict density 5-10 frames ahead per zone, and estimate time-to-critical-threshold. Currently using EMA-smoothed Gaussian-weighted linear extrapolation. MAE ~20 on 55 frames. Direction accuracy 49% (basically coin flip on reversals). No historical