AI RESEARCH
From Plausible to Causal: Counterfactual Semantics for Policy Evaluation in Simulated Online Communities
arXiv CS.CL
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ArXi:2604.03920v1 Announce Type: new LLM-based social simulations can generate believable community interactions, enabling ``policy wind tunnels'' where governance interventions are tested before deployment. But believability is not causality. Claims like ``intervention $A$ reduces escalation'' require causal semantics that current simulation work typically does not specify.