Forecast Sports Outcomes under Efficient Market Hypothesis: Theoretical and Experimental Analysis of Odds-Only and Generalised Linear Models

ArXi:2604.17194v1 Announce Type: cross Converting betting odds into accurate outcome probabilities is a fundamental challenge in order to use betting odds as a benchmark for sports forecasting and market efficiency analysis. In this study, we propose two methods to overcome the limitations of existing conversion methods. Firstly, we propose an odds-only method to convert betting odds to probabilities without using historical data for model fitting.