Trajectory-Aware Reliability Modeling of Democratic Systems

ArXi:2604.20127v1 Announce Type: new Failures in complex systems often emerge through gradual degradation and the propagation of stress across interacting components rather than through isolated shocks. cratic systems exhibit similar dynamics, where weakening institutions can trigger cascading deterioration in related institutional structures. Traditional reliability and survival models typically estimate failure risk based on the current system state but do not explicitly capture how degradation propagates through institutional networks over time. This paper.