The Economics of p(doom): Scenarios of Existential Risk and Economic Growth in the Age of Transformative AI

ArXi:2503.07341v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have led to a wide range of predictions about its long-term impact on humanity. A central focus is the potential emergence of transformative AI (TAI), eventually capable of outperforming humans in all economically valuable tasks and fully automating labor. Discussed scenarios range from unprecedented economic growth and abundance ("post-scarcity" or "cornucopia") to human extinction after a misaligned TAI takes over ("AI doom.