Conditional Flow Matching for Probabilistic Downscaling of Maximum 3-day Snowfall in Alaska

ArXi:2604.25172v1 Announce Type: cross Precipitation in complex terrain is governed by orographic processes operating at scales of a few kilometers, yet climate models typically run at resolutions of 50--100~km where this topographic detail is absent. Dynamical downscaling with high-resolution regional models such as WRF can resolve these processes, but the computational cost -- months of wall-clock time per scenario -- precludes the large ensembles needed for uncertainty quantification.