Recipes for Calibration Checks in Safety-Critical Applications

ArXi:2604.26479v1 Announce Type: cross Safety-critical prediction systems, such as autonomous vehicles, weather forecasters, and medical monitors, commonly rely on probabilistic forecasters. These forecasters make predictions about possible future outcomes, and their quality and robustness needs to be validated and certified. Often, only accuracy -- the mean of the predictions -- is evaluated against true outcomes.