AI RESEARCH
Optimal Spatio-Temporal Decoupling for Bayesian Conformal Prediction
arXiv CS.LG
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ArXi:2605.00432v1 Announce Type: new Online Conformal Prediction (CP) struggles to balance temporal adaptability and structural stability. Feedback-driven methods (e.g., Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI)) suffer from systemic marginal under-coverage and high interval variance during abrupt shifts, while temporally discounted Bayesian CP suffers from severe structural lag and uncalibrated interval bloat. We propose State-Adaptive Bayesian Conformal Prediction (SA-BCP) to achieve optimal spatio-temporal decoupling.