Two Hebrew folk meteorological proverbs tested: rainfall on Rosh Chodesh and Shabbat Mevarechim as predictors of monthly precipitation (Israel, 1950-2024)

ArXi:2605.10960v1 Announce Type: cross Folk meteorological proverbs encode centuries of empirical observation by agricultural communities. Two Hebrew proverbs link lunar calendar anchor days to monthly winter rainfall: (i) "If Rosh Chodesh is rainy, the whole month is rainy" and (ii) "If it rains on Shabbat Mevarechim, the whole month is rainy." Shabbat Mevarechim is the last Saturday before each new Hebrew month, preceding Rosh Chodesh by one to seven days. The first proverb is widely known; the second circulates in Hasidic oral tradition with no identified written source.