AI RESEARCH
The Bayesian Origin of the Probability Weighting Function in Human Representation of Probabilities
arXiv CS.AI
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ArXi:2510.04698v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Humans systematically misrepresent probability in a stereotyped inverse-S pattern. It has been documented for decades, but its origin remains unexplained. We propose a Bayesian encoding-decoding account in which probabilities are represented by noisy internal signals and decoded by Bayes-risk minimization.