Efficient distributional regression trees learning algorithms for calibrated non-parametric probabilistic forecasts

ArXi:2502.05157v3 Announce Type: replace The perspective of developing trustworthy AI for critical applications in science and engineering requires machine learning techniques that are capable of estimating their own uncertainty. In the context of regression, instead of estimating a conditional mean, this can be achieved by producing a predictive interval for the output, or to even learn a model of the conditional probability $p(y|x)$ of an output $y$ given input features $x$. While this can be done under parametric assumptions with, e.g.