Uncertainty-Aware Wildfire Smoke Density Classification from Satellite Imagery via CBAM-Augmented EfficientNet with Evidential Deep Learning

ArXi:2605.15894v1 Announce Type: cross Rapid and accurate wildfire smoke severity assessment from satellite images is essential for emergency response, air quality modeling, and human health risk management. Existing deep learning approaches treat smoke detection as a binary task, producing point estimates without any measure of prediction confidence. We propose a probabilistic framework to categorize a satellite patch into Light, Moderate, and Heavy severity classes and to provide decomposed epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty in a single forward pass.