TEA-Time: Transporting Effects Across Time

ArXi:2603.07018v1 Announce Type: cross Treatment effects estimated from randomized controlled trials are local not only to the study population but also to the time at which the trial was conducted. We develop a framework for temporal transportation: extrapolating treatment effects to time periods where no experiment was conducted. We target the transported average treatment effect (TATE) and show that under a separable temporal effects assumption, the TATE decomposes into an observed average treatment effect and a temporal ratio.