What the hell happened with AGI timelines in 2025?

In early 2025, after OpenAI put out the first-ever reasoning models - o1 and o3 - short timelines to transformative artificial general intelligence swept the AI world. But then, in the second half of 2025, sentiment swung all the way back in the other direction, with people’s forecasts for when AI might really shake up the world blowing out even further than they had been before reasoning models came along.