Broad Timelines

No-one knows when AI will begin having transformative impacts upon the world. People aren’t sure and shouldn’t be sure: there just isn’t enough evidence to pin it down. But we don’t need to wait for certainty. I want to explore what happens if we take our uncertainty seriously - if we act with epistemic humility. What does wise planning look like in a world of deeply uncertain AI timelines? I’ll conclude that taking the uncertainty seriously has real implications for how one can contribute to making this AI transition go well.