Q1 2026 Timelines Update

We’re mostly focused on research and writing for our next big scenario, but we’re also continuing to think about AI timelines and takeoff speeds, monitoring the evidence as it comes in, and adjusting our expectations accordingly. We’re tentatively planning on making quarterly updates to our timelines and takeoff forecasts. Since we published the AI Futures Model 3 months ago, we’ve updated towards shorter timelines. Daniel’s Automated Coder (AC) median has moved from late 2029 to mid 2028, and Eli’s forecast has moved a similar amount.