Hedging and Survival-Weighted Planning

This wasn't intended to be a topical post, but Claude Mythos's system card is out, and. well. I wrote years ago about decision analysis, which often focused on atomic actions in small situations. In the real world, people take large numbers of actions in very large situations, where there is uncertainty not just over which of a few consequences will happen, but over what sort of consequences are even possible. Dealing with the computational constraints becomes a major part of practical wisdom, rather than the basic math of the ideal case.