Have Americans Become Less Violent Since 1980?

The US homicide rate hit 10.2 per 100,000 in 1980, fell to 4.4 by 2014, then spiked to 6.5 in 2020. This looks like a story about violence rising, falling, and rising again. The actual story is simpler and worse: homicidal violence tripled in the 1960s and 70s. After adjusting for medical improvement, there is no clear statistical signal that it ever came back down. What changed was not the violence but how often it killed people. Deaths vs. attacks The homicide rate measures deaths. Deaths from gunshot wounds depend on two things: how many people get shot, and how many of those people die.