AI SAFETY & ETHICS
Predicting Rare LLM Failures with 30× Fewer Rollouts
LessWrong AI
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TL;DR: We estimate how often Qwen 3 4B exhibits rare harmful behaviors with 30× fewer rollouts than naive sampling, using a new method that interpolates between the model and a less-safe variant in logit space. Authors: Francisco Pernice (MIT), Santiago Aranguri (Goodfire)